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James Emanuel's avatar

This company was riding a Covid-19 wave for a few years which carried its valuation to unsustainable levels. Even after the recent pull back the valuation is difficult to justify.

There are a number of headwinds:

- The pandemic resulted in demand being pulled forward. The impact of customer inventory destocking now continues to weigh on the company's Proprietary Products segment.

- The company has made the decision to not participate in the next-generation CGM device development going forward, as it cannot achieve its financial thresholds. One of its CGM customers has already started to exit, while the other has informed West Pharmaceutical of its intention to exit in mid-2026.

- The company expects a $75 million headwind to its 2025 net sales guidance based on current foreign exchange rates.

- The company's Contract Manufacturing segment is expected to see a 200 basis point decline in margins in fiscal year 2025 due to lower utilization.

Exercise caution. This may be a value trap. Just because it has fallen 40% doesn't mean it's cheap. It could still fall further.

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researchnewsletters1's avatar

Great write up, thanks for sharing. What is the catalyst for re-rating do you think ?

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